Its late, but its here. My 2007 NFL Preview, I’ll try to be as concise as I can possibly be with these.
AFC NORTH:
Bengals-I like this offense a lot. Rudi Johnson is a sure bet to rush for 1200 yards and have double digit touchdowns every single year. They may have lost Steinbach on the o-line but I like the group they still have. Its hard to match their skill set at the skill positions on offense. Defensively they’ve spent back to back first round picks on their defensive backfield which will improve. The thug impact and criminal intent in their linebacking corps hurts a bit but I still think this bend but don’t break defense will do enough to get them the division. (12-4)
Pittsburgh-Though it will be a tough transitional year with a new head coach, there is too much talent on offense for this team to be bad two years in a row. Roethlisberger is due for a big comeback year, fast Willie Parker is proving he can be a three down back and the offensive line is still in tact. The defense is always changing and they always seem to find guys every year to who can fill in for a departed pro bowler. (9-7)
Ravens-This is my surprise pick of the division and conference. I’m not buying the hype. The offensive line is old and its going to cause problems for both McGahee and McNair. They have no great receivers, no legit deep threats and they wont be able to keep the defense off the field. I think the defense is good, but they are also aging a bit. Losing Adalius Thomas will be a bigger hit than a lot of folks think. They’ll draft in the top 10 next year. (6-10)
Browns-I think they’ll win the same amount of games as the Ravens. They made some sensible moves in the off-season bolstering that offensive line. When LeCharles Bentley comes back this team will be a lot better. This is actually a respectable offensive line but the questions at quarterback will cause problems as far as chemistry, game management and I don’t like any of their QB’s. I’ve never been a big frye guy (whaaaaaaale) and I don’t think very highly of Brady Quinn. Their defense will keep them in games. (6-10)
AFC South
Colts-It won’t even be close. They’ll win this division by about five games. They aren’t as good as they were last year, but the rest of the teams in that division have gotten worse. Addai is every bit as good as Edge was, and while losing Tarik Glenn hurt, they at least had an idea it was coming and that’s why they drafted Tony Ugoh. That’s their only question on offense, and it’s not a very big one. The questions are on defense where they gutted the interior of their d-line, lost a playmaker in Cato June and lost a couple of key contributors in their secondary. (13-3)
Jaguars-David Garrard will manage the game, but lacks elite arm strength to throw the ball deep down field, not that it matters, they don’t have anybody who can stretch the field anyways. I think Jones-Drew and Taylor make a nice 1-2 punch. Their o-line isn’t bad. Defensively they’re tough to run on with their studs in the middle but they generate no pass rush and I think they’ll get picked apart through the air. This isn’t a playoff team. They wont score enough points and their defense will be on the field a ton. (8-8)
Texans-They’re finally out of the cellar this season. I don’t think Ahman Green will set the world on fire, but he’ll do enough to take the pressure off Matt Schaub who will have more time that people think to get rid of the ball. I think his decision-making is way better than David Carr’s (that’s why they got rid of him). Schaub will get rid of it quickly to Jacoby Jones and Andre Johnson. On defense they’re getting a lot better up front but have a long ways to go. The secondary needs a lot of work and this is whole team is still a big work in progress. (6-10)
Titans-I’m officially off the Vince Young bandwagon. Ask Mike Vick how well the elusive running style of a quarterback in the NFL translates to wins and losses. He surprised some people last year but he won’t catch anyone off guard this year. The offensive line is average at best, and he lost his two best skill players in Travis Henry and Drew Bennett. He’s got nobody good or healthy to hand the ball off to and nobody reliable to throw it to. Defensively this team lost a lot in Pacman Jones and they don’t have much worth writing about on that side of the ball. I’ve always been a big Jeff Fisher guy, but this year he’ll have to wave the magic wand several times to make this team competitive. (5-11)
AFC East
Patriots-As much as I hate just about everyone on this team, how can you not pick them to win the division? They’ve made upgrades just about everywhere. Maroney is a great back who will prove he can handle the load and with all those WR’s how will teams ever be able to load up in the box against him? They should score a lot of points. Defensively they’re in trouble with Seymour hurt, Samuel arriving late and Harrison suspended for a while. The linebackers are aging quickly but the arrival of Adalius Thomas helps. They’ll win the division by at least three games. (12-4)
Jets-Bufallo will contend for this spot but the Jets are well coached and they’ll finally have some stability in the running game with Thomas Jones. I like that move a lot and I think he’ll be great for these guys. Pennington is finally healthy and they have a pair of good receivers who can stretch the field. Defensively they are steadily improving. The linebackers are quick and their d-line is a bit underrated. The secondary has some ball hawks and should be able to create more turnovers this year. Fringe playoff team (9-7)
Bills-Sure they lost a lot on defense but I like what they’ve got on offense. I was hopeful that Lynch would fall to the Pack but the Bills snagged him a few picks before and they’ve got themselves a complete back. He can catch, he can make you miss and he’s got that explosive second gear. Their offensive line isn’t too shabby. Dockery was a big addition, Peters is an underrated tackle and when you have a guy like Lee Evans who is one of the best deep threats in the game, it makes it tough for defenses to creep up and focus on Lynch. This is Losman’s breakout year. Defensively they lost a lot. They still do have a pair of good rush ends in Schobel and Kelsay. Linebackers are young and have lots to learn while this secondary is a work in progress after losing Clemens. Whitner is a great player but he’s about all they’ve got back there. They’re a playoff team in ’08. (8-8)
Dolphins-I don’t buy the hype on this older than dirt defense. They’re exactly that, old, slow and just not as good as advertised. Getting Ginn will help them in the return game if he proves he can stay healthy. They’ll need him desperately to help out with field position, because I don’t think very much of that offense. As a matter of fact I don’t think this offense is good at all. Chambers will get lost in Cameron’s offense, the line is not that great and Ronnie Brown hasn’t proven much. Trading for a QB in his mid-thirties also doesn’t make this team a playoff contender. They’re a few years away. (6-10)
AFC West
Chargers-Yeah, I’m gambling here. On paper this is the best team in the NFL. They are great everywhere. They’re also deep everywhere it seems. They have good players at all their skill positions on offense and on defense they play the pass well, rush the passer well, and they defend the run very well. Its hard not to like this team. They’ve got the talent to go to the big show, the only question is this, how much will the turnover on the coaching staff hurt? (13-3)
Broncos-They’re a playoff team and one of the best in this conference. I like what they did on draft day by getting all of those young d-linemen. They’ve got two good corners in Bly and Bailey, throw Ferguson and Lynch in there and you’ve got one of the best d-backfields in the league. Losing Wilson hurts but Gold and Williams still remain. Simeon Rice and those young d-linemen make this a great defense. Offensively they’ve got their next 1200-yard rusher in Henry who fits the one cut and run philosophy to a T. Cutler was able to get some experience last year and develop a rapport with Javon Walker. He also has two good tight ends in Scheffler and Graham. (11-5)
Chiefs-I don’t like this team very much. Defensively they’ve got some good young players in Johnson, Allen and Hali. Other than those three, they’ve got some old defensive players who won’t do much. On offense their line has lost way too much the last three years. Larry Johnson will get his, but he’s all they’ve got. It’ll be easy to load up on these guys because running is about all they’ll be able to do. They’re a step above the Raiders, but not by much. (6-10)
Raiders-They’re still a train wreck on offense. The line still needs work, Russell still isn’t in camp, they have some talent rushers who won’t have much room to run and who will catch passes in this offense? Apparently Jerry Porter has looked good and Curry isn’t bad but if those are the best two they’ve got then they’re in trouble. I like Ryan’s philosophy on defense and they’ve got some horses. They put up good numbers on D last year but the problem this year is that they’ll be on the field way too long. They’re drafting in the top five again next year. (4-12)
NFC NORTH
Vikings-This is perhaps my biggest surprise of the season. They’re offensive line is awesome with Birk, Hutchinson and McKinney. They’ll always have a fresh back with Peterson and Taylor back there. Both guys can catch and run very well. They’ll take pressure off Jackson in the passing game and wear defenses down. Defensively they have the two big Williams’s in the middle to eat up blockers, both James and Udeze are healthy this year and they’ll provide a much needed pass rush. Chad Greenway is healthy, E.J. Henderson mans the middle and will have well over 100 tackles. The secondary is led by Sharper and Winfield who are both great players. They have some depth in this cover two scheme, which should have plenty of chances to make big plays. (11-5)
Packers-I originally put the Bears here, but I shoved them back one spot. Brandon Jackson gets the start and should see a bulk of the carries in this zone-blocking scheme. The o-line is young and should give Jackson some room to run but he doesn’t have that explosive second gear or big play ability. Greg Jennings must be healthy for this passing game to thrive. They’ve got Favre, therefore they still have a chance. Driver is a great player but he can’t stretch the field like he used to. This defense is outstanding. They have TONS of depth up front with Harrell, Jenkins, Kampman, KGB, Pickett and Williams. The linebackers are young and quick. Barnett, Hawk, Hodge and Poppinga make up a very athletic unit. This defensive backfield has one great year left because they’re getting old. Harris, Woodson and Blackmon are all ballhawks who should benefit from a great pass rush. (8-8)
Bears-This offensive line is so good that anybody should be able to run behind it. I don’t like Cedric Benson, never have. He’ll prove he can’t handle the load and will share carries with the other Adrian Peterson. As long as Rex Grossman is the quarterback I’ll never take their passing game seriously. The defense is still good. Hillenmeyer, Urlacher and Briggs are a great threesome. The d-line is still solid but Harris is coming off an injury and there is no Tank Johnson. Secondary is still pretty good with Archuleta helping out against the run, Manning and Vasher serving as viable options against the pass. They are however, an injury away from being average. Call it a hunch, but they’re due for a down year. (7-9)
Lions-The offense has the talent and the balance, but they just don’t have enough on defense to get it done. I like their o-line with Backus, Foster, and Muilitalo (I know I spelled that wrong). Bell is a versatile back who will be spelled by Duckett in goaline situations. The passing game speaks for itself with Williams, Johnson and Furrey. Kitna is due for a big year. On defense they just don’t have very much to speak of. If you cant stop anybody, it doesn’t matter how many points you score. They’re still a couple years away. (6-10)
NFC SOUTH
Saints-I’m not impressed by their defense but their offense is fantastic. Henderson and Meachem are great deep threats and Colston will still get his. That o-line is awesome and they’ve got two great backs in McAllister and Bush. There is too much not to like on offense. The defense added a few playmakers but they wont be any better than they were last season. Still, its enough to win this declining division. (11-5)
Panthers-How they’re a favorite on the road in week one is beyond me. The defense is very talented but never healthy, and Delhomme is in a great state of urgency, perform now or find employment elsewhere. I wish they’d just give the ball to Williams and be done with it. Foster cant stay healthy and Williams is much more explosive. The o-line is good and deep, which will allow the rest of the offense to keep this team competitive. I like all of their receivers, which is why its now or never for Delhomme. On defense, I like their front seven if they’re healthy but they rarely are. There isn’t enough talent in the secondary to make up for that. (7-9)
Falcons-I still think there’s some fight left in these guys after the Vick debacle. The two-headed monster of Dunn and Norwood should work well in Petrino’s offense. If their receivers hang on to the ball I think Harrington will be a big surprise this year because he’s not as awful as people think. I think Harrington will have a decent year. Horn will help the underachieving receivers. Hall is a great corner, Brooking is an aging but still productive linebacker and their front four, when all healthy can be productive, but much like Carolina, that rarely happens. (7-9)
Bucs-This is Chucky’s last year. I don’t see enough talent ANYWHERE on this roster. The o-line is bad, they have 9000 quarterbacks who are average at best, Cadillac has yet to prove he can handle the load and aside from Mr. All or Nothing Joey Galloway, the receivers offer very little. On defense they’ve lost so many great players from their glory days it’s hard to tell who the opposition will have to design their game plan around. They could draft first next season. (3-13)
NFC EAST
Eagles-There are a lot of people who love the Cowboys in this division, while I like Dallas, I like Philly a lot more. McNabb is due for a big year and they just might have the best o-line in football. The line allows them to do a lot. Reggie Brown will have 1,000 yards receiving and Kevin Curtis wont be far behind. Brian Westbrook gives McNabb a great security blanket and he’ll be huge again for these guys. On defense I think they’re very talented up front with Reagor, Kearse Bunkley and Cole. Linebackers are old but they still have some life left. I like their secondary a lot. Dawkins, Brown and Sheppard make up a very good group. (11-5)
Cowboys-Wade Phillips’s attacking 3-4 style will create nightmares for the opposition with the talent he has on this roster. They have so many athletic freaks who will constantly be around the ball. They’ve struggled against the pass in the past but they’ll be much better this season with that attacking 3-4 generating an insane pass rush. On offense they have a great line with road graters and a nice two-headed monster to compliment an above average passing game. Romo has plenty of guys to throw to and that makes this team a favorite even if I don’t have them winning the division. (10-6)
Redskins-I like what they’ve got on defense, but there are some questions on offense. They have a young quarterback who wont take many chances downfield. They have a good offensive line with two great tackles and if Portis doesn’t work out, then they have Ladell Betts who went over 1,000 yards last year. They have receivers that don’t fit the bill. Moss and Randel-El are both vertical threats in an offense that needs good possession receivers. On defense I like Fletcher-Baker and Marcus Washington. The line doesn’t offer much. Daniels, Griffin and Carter don’t get me too excited. The strength is in the secondary with Taylor, Landry, Springs and Carlos Rogers. That’s a great foursome who will make it tough to pass. Still, not enough on offense, not for me anyways. (7-9)
Giants-I don’t like very much about this squad. Their o-line was bad last year and its worse this year. Manning isn’t a bad quarterback but he’ll be on his back a lot. Jacobs is a good goaline back but what else does he offer? The last time they tried to make an oversized back their feature back, (Ron Dayne) he lost his job to Tiki Barber who is making a living out of throwing his ex-teammates and coaches under the bus. Strahan is old, Umenyiora isn’t bad but those are the only two guys I like on defense. This team isn’t very good. Coughlin is done after this year. (5-11)
NFC WEST
49ers-This is becoming a more popular pick by the day. Maybe that’s not such a great thing. I like the offensive line a lot. Their depth is a big asset and their skill positions are getting stronger. Alex Smith will do fine in his third year especially when he has a 1600 yard back to give the ball to. Darrel Jackson needed a change of scenery and will do well as their number one receiver. Not to mention, its time for second year tight end Vernon Davis to make his mark and he’ll be big as Smith’s security blanket. On defense they have some questions up front, but they have some very good athletic linebackers to make up the difference. Lawson, Moore, Banta-Cain, Derek Smith and newcomer Patrick Willis make up a very nice unit. Their secondary will be tested in a pass-happy division but they’re up to the task. I like this unit a lot with Clemens, Walt Harris, Michael Lewis and Mark Roman. I think their due for a big year. (10-6)
Seattle-They are beginning to decline offensively. Hasslebeck is coming off an injury and will have to find a new favorite target with Jackson gone. I like Alexander, but he’s now 30 years old, he’s taken a beating and he’s coming off an injury. The offensive line has lost Tobeck and Hutchinson, two key cogs in the interior, though they still have Walter Jones. On defense they’ve still got some talent up front and their linebackers are still pretty good. I like Kerney and Tubbs up front, Tatupu and Peterson lead the linebackers but I don’t like the secondary much. I like Trufant in that group, but the rest of those guys are aging quickly. (9-7)
Arizona-The new coaching staff will stress the importance of winning the war in the trenches, which is something this team hasn’t done in years. They have all the talent on the perimeter and should score a lot of points. I think the o-line will improve and allow this team to score close to 30 points a game. They will have to do that in order to stay competitive because this defense still isn’t very good. They have some decent players up front in Branch and Dockett but the secondary is still a work in progress. I think they’re a year away from winning this division. (7-9)
Rams-I think they’re right there with Arizona. A lot of offense but no defense whatsoever to match. I still think the line has one or two good years left but they are getting old very quickly. Bulger is a great accurate quarterback who makes the most of the tools he’s got. Holt, Bruce and Bennett will have nice years and there is nothing bad I can say about Steve Jackson who should have another great season. On defense, they have a little more than I thought initially. Up front they’ll make it tough for teams to run with Little, Glover, Kennedy and Carriker. They also have two good ‘backers in Witherspoon and Tinoisamoa. I don’t like their secondary at all though, and I think other teams in this division will be able to throw on them a ton. (7-9)
Playoffs and Super Bowl Stuff will come later on.